Figure 3.

a & b – Observed and Predicted All-Cause Mortality According to the Current and TL Model, U.S., 1995–2005. Predicted (red) and observed (blue) monthly all-cause mortality in ages 50 and above, United States, 1995 to 2005. The predicted values are based on the combined means from 30,000 MCMC simulations for each age category, using the current model (expressions 1 through 4) (a) and the TL model (expressions 6 and 7) (b).