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Application of Hill's viewpoints on the causal association between the Dent-O-Sept swab and becoming colonised or infected during the outbreak |
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| Hill's viewpoints |
Application on the Dent-O-Sept outbreak |
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| 1. Strength of association |
Strong. |
| Association for having used the swab during hospitalisation and having the outbreak strain of P. aeruginosa, adjusted odds ratio 5.3. |
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| Detecting genotypically identical strains of the bacterium in patients, the product and in the production facility [1] |
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| 2. Consistency of association |
Yes, to a large extent. |
| However, other co-factors also needed to be in place, e.g. contamination of the particular swab and a susceptible patient. Due to secondary spread in the hospitals also patients who did not use the swab were infected. |
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| 3. Specificity of association |
Yes, mostly. |
| Use of contaminated swabs led to colonisation and some times to infection. Necessary co-factors were as above (2). The clinical manifestations of the P. aeruginosa infection varied widely. |
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| 4. Temporal sequence of association |
Yes. |
| However, the outbreak strain of the bacteria was found in six patients before the production of the first contaminated batch of swabs was detected [2]. |
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| When the swabs were withdrawn from the marked the number of cases gradually diminished and disappeared. |
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| 5. Biological gradient |
This was not tested but assumed. Reuse of the swabs may have increased the bacterial load and hence the risk of becoming infected. |
| 6. Plausibility of association |
Yes. |
| The chain from contamination during production to infection is well described. |
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| 7. Coherence of association |
Yes. |
| There is no other hypothesis of explanations for the outbreak. |
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| 8. Experiment (reversibility) |
Yes, a natural experiment. |
| When the source was removed the number of cases gradually diminished to zero. |
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| 9. Analogy |
Yes. |
| There are many other outbreaks caused by medical devices. (References in [1]) |
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Iversen et al. Emerging Themes in Epidemiology 2008 5:22 doi:10.1186/1742-7622-5-22 |
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