Table 1

Influenza-associated excess mortality per 100,000 population in West Germany (1984/85–1989/90) and united Germany (1990/91–2000/01), by method of estimation


Cyclical Regression
Relative Mortality Distribution



Influenza season
Crude estimatea
conservativeb
Crude estimatea
conservativeb

1984 / 85c
17.9
3.2
22.0
8.7
1985 / 86c
25.4
12.9
23.4
13.9
1986 / 87c
9.3
1.8
2.9
0.0
1987 / 88c
2.2
0.0
3.5
0.0
1988 / 89c
10.3
3.9
5.9
0.0
1989 / 90c
35.7
17.0
30.8
16.3
1990 / 91
7.4 / 5.9 d
1.5 / 0 d
4.6
0.1
1991 / 92
21.8 / 19.6 d
12.6 / 11.1 d
15.8
4.2
1992 / 93
21.2 / 21.4 d
11.2 / 11.2 d
18.9
12.3
1993 / 94
16.5 / 16.6 d
9.0 / 8.8 d
7.8
2.8
1994 / 95
9.0 / 11.7 d
1.2 / 2.4 d
9.7
3.4
1995 / 96
44.2
25.8
40.6
26.1
1996 7 97
8.0
1.0
15.0
5.5
1997 / 98
10.9
1.2
11.3
2.6
1998 / 99
26.9
15.4
26.7
19.3
1999 / 2000
12.9
5.5
19.3
9.6
2000 / 01
12.7
2.0
13.5
7.0

1984/85–1994/95
176.7
74.3
145.2
61.6
1990/91–2000/01
190.9
84.4
183.2
92.9
1984/85–2000/01
292.3 / 291.6
125.2 / 123.2
271.7
131.8

a observed minus expected mortality

b observed minus upper 90%confidence limit of expected mortality

c West German excess mortality only

d For cyclical regression two models were built, one for the time period 1984/85–1994/95 and one for 1990/91–2000/01, resulting in two estimates for the seasons 1990/91–1994/95

Zucs et al. Emerging Themes in Epidemiology 2005 2:6   doi:10.1186/1742-7622-2-6