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Influenza-associated excess mortality per 100,000 population in West Germany (1984/85–1989/90) and united Germany (1990/91–2000/01), by method of estimation |
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| Cyclical Regression |
Relative Mortality Distribution |
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| Influenza season |
Crude estimatea |
conservativeb |
Crude estimatea |
conservativeb |
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|
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| 1984 / 85c |
17.9 |
3.2 |
22.0 |
8.7 |
| 1985 / 86c |
25.4 |
12.9 |
23.4 |
13.9 |
| 1986 / 87c |
9.3 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
| 1987 / 88c |
2.2 |
0.0 |
3.5 |
0.0 |
| 1988 / 89c |
10.3 |
3.9 |
5.9 |
0.0 |
| 1989 / 90c |
35.7 |
17.0 |
30.8 |
16.3 |
| 1990 / 91 |
7.4 / 5.9 d |
1.5 / 0 d |
4.6 |
0.1 |
| 1991 / 92 |
21.8 / 19.6 d |
12.6 / 11.1 d |
15.8 |
4.2 |
| 1992 / 93 |
21.2 / 21.4 d |
11.2 / 11.2 d |
18.9 |
12.3 |
| 1993 / 94 |
16.5 / 16.6 d |
9.0 / 8.8 d |
7.8 |
2.8 |
| 1994 / 95 |
9.0 / 11.7 d |
1.2 / 2.4 d |
9.7 |
3.4 |
| 1995 / 96 |
44.2 |
25.8 |
40.6 |
26.1 |
| 1996 7 97 |
8.0 |
1.0 |
15.0 |
5.5 |
| 1997 / 98 |
10.9 |
1.2 |
11.3 |
2.6 |
| 1998 / 99 |
26.9 |
15.4 |
26.7 |
19.3 |
| 1999 / 2000 |
12.9 |
5.5 |
19.3 |
9.6 |
| 2000 / 01 |
12.7 |
2.0 |
13.5 |
7.0 |
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| 1984/85–1994/95 |
176.7 |
74.3 |
145.2 |
61.6 |
| 1990/91–2000/01 |
190.9 |
84.4 |
183.2 |
92.9 |
| 1984/85–2000/01 |
292.3 / 291.6 |
125.2 / 123.2 |
271.7 |
131.8 |
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a observed minus expected mortality b observed minus upper 90%confidence limit of expected mortality c West German excess mortality only d For cyclical regression two models were built, one for the time period 1984/85–1994/95 and one for 1990/91–2000/01, resulting in two estimates for the seasons 1990/91–1994/95 | ||||
Zucs et al. Emerging Themes in Epidemiology 2005 2:6 doi:10.1186/1742-7622-2-6 |
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